Conflict

Written by Simon Allmer

Note: This Society Review Program is currently under construction. As a foundation, the author has used writings by Christopher Blattman (Why We Fight) and Hannes Rusch (The Logic of Human Intergroup Conflict).

Why We Fight

1 Unchecked Interests

When the people decide on war aren’t accountable to the others in their group, they can ignore some of the costs and agony of fighting. These leaders will take their group to war too frequently. Sometimes they expect to gain personally from conflict, and so they’re enticed to start fights. Unchecked rulers are one of the greatest drivers of conflict in history.

2 Intangible Incentives

There are times when committing violence delivers something valued, like vengeance or status or dominance. In other cases, violence is the sole path to the righteous ends – God’s glory, freedom or combating injustice. Any preference for them will run against the costs of war and tilt a group away from compromise.

3 Uncertainty

In war, people rarely know their enemies’ true strength or resolve with each side being able to bluff. The information uncertainty means that attacking is occasionally the best strategy, even if fighting is detrimental.

4 Preemption

If a looming shift in power is large enough, incentives for the currently stronger party to destroy the other preemptively can be irresistible, especially when commitments by the weaker party to not take advantage of their future strength are not credible.

5 Misperceptions

Psychological biases and misconceptions against non-group members make peaceful solution more difficult.

Paths to Peace

1 Interdependence

Successful societies, and the groups within them, are intertwined economically, socially, and culturally.

2 Checks and Balances

Institutions can compel leaders to listen to the many over the few.

3 Rules and Enforcement

The state, the law, and social norms act as pacifiers within and through international systems, among groups.

4 Interventions

Once violence breaks out there is an available toolbox to restore peace. Its implementation requires careful and pragmatic tinkering on a case by case basis instead of ambitious central planning.

Punishing

Using penalties to deter the strong from using violence.

Enforcing

Ensuring bargains get held until the agreements are self-sustaining.

Facilitating

Sharing information and making the process of bargaining faster and smoother.

Incentivizing

Devising inducements to get the powerful to come to the table and stay there.

Socializing

Cultivating a society that avoids rigid negative frames, misperceptions, and violent reactions.