The Digital Silk Road

July 2022

In his new book The Digital Silk Road, Jonathan E. Hillman from CSIS introduces the reader to one of the greatest geostrategic challenges: China’s technological rise.

Few ideas in recent history have been as powerful and persistent as the believe that communications technology would inevitably promote liberty. In the emerging Network Wars this idea has proven wrong. To Chinese strategists digital technologies are tools that, if executed right, further enhance the power of the Communist Party in controlling their people and making all roads lead to Beijing

The key to this is setting the global standards. Chinese officials have long said that third-rate countries build things, second-rate countries design things, and first-rate countries set standards. Blinded by greed, western companies handed over critical information to Chinese companies and created their biggest competitors. While IBM and Nortel gained short monetary advantages, technology transfer cannot be undone (leading to the liquidation of Nortel in 2013). This enabled China to wire large parts of the developing world and rural areas by promising cheap and high tech networks, thereby expanding its reach and gaining economic power. An example of this was an intentional power outage in the city of Mumbai, responding to a clash between Chinese and Indian troops at the border. They can also pressure countries into using their systems. As one Chinese diplomat explains: “If Germany were to take a decision that leads to Huawei’s exclusion from the German market, there will be consequences. China could declare German cars unsafe.”

In a comprehensible metaphor, Hillman describes the US strategy as playing Monopoly (expanding the worlds largest technology like a tycoon), China playing Risk (defensive posture at home while marching into markets abroad) and the EU playing Red Light, Green Light (relying on regulatory powers like a traffic cop due to the lack of domestic tech giants). The asymmetries in power between the US and other democracies as well as their different views on issues like privacy are currently preventing collective action. The past solidarity was a product of external threats like the Cold War. China will soon fill that void which terrorist groups (not universal enough) and climate change (perceived as not urgent enough) were unable to do.

In their own country the Communist Party aims to surveil 100% of public space with the Sharp Eyes program as well as exporting surveillance cameras to autocrats worldwide. With surveillance systems there is always a trade-off between precision and recall. Systems that favour precision minimise false positives while systems that favour recall minimise false negatives. Chinese officials prioritise the latter, ensuring that no potential threats go unnoticed instead of minimising harm from false identifications. This dystopian future of law and order looks more like Judge Dredd than Judge Judy.

But the battle is not lost for the United States. Their private sector is pioneering technologies like quantum computing and low earth orbit satellites that provide global broadband. Also the fortress-style internet that is designed for isolation harms innovation and constrains China’s ability to connect with foreign networks. Huawei, Shanghai Telecom & Co. rose to power not only through stealing western technology and receiving state subsidies but also by providing services to overlooked markets. If the US recognises these markets and manages to collaborate with other democracies, it will win the Network Wars.

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