How to prevent WW3

March 2022

As a neutral country, Ukraine declares its willingness to be equipped with a military that can only maintain internal security (Finlandization) and renounces a possible accession to NATO or the EU.

In return, the withdrawal of the Russians from the occupied areas is initiated. Under the chairmanship of the OSCE, referenda are held in the self-proclaimed republics of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk about joining Russia or remaining in Ukraine.

A United Nations buffer zone will be established between the two countries.

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March 2023 Update

Although many circumstances have changed, I remain of the conviction that the longer it takes for a diplomatic strategy to develop, the more difficult it will be to do so. In order to end the deaths of civilians and soldiers (many of whom are fighting against their will), the conflict must move from the battlefield to the negotiation table.

Looking at interstate wars between 1946 and 2022, data from Uppsala University shows that a quarter of armed conflicts end in less than a month. Another quarter in less than a year. However when interstate wars last longer than a year, they extend to over a decade on average.

An armistice would allow Ukraine to recover economically and prevent an unwinnable war, blinded by ideology, from escalating.