Modularity
Building a city on the moon will bring many surprises, most of them unpleasant. This makes it essential to integrate construction feasibility into the design process. Insights into past project successes and failures, compiled by economic geographer Bent Flyvbjerg, are particularly useful here.
In examining major projects with low risks of cost overruns or time delays, we find solar power at the top, with an average cost overrun of only 1%. Wind power follows at 13%, while nuclear storage ranks lowest with a staggering 238%.
This isn’t only about renewable energy. The Olympic Games (157%) and hydroelectric dams (71%) are also not immune. Even large IT projects face a 73% cost overrun. While this may seem modest compared to nuclear storage, it’s crucial to note that, although only 18% of IT projects exceed a 50% overrun, those that do average a massive 447%—20% more than nuclear storage. When IT projects go bad, they go really bad.
What sets the lucky few apart is modularity. Rather than aiming for a single monolithic project, building with repeatable modules allows for ongoing improvement, knowledge transfer, and, in some cases, immediate usability.
Solar power is inherently modular, with solar cells as the fundamental building blocks. By connecting multiple cells on a panel, we instantly generate electricity. Wiring panels together creates an array, and with enough repetitions, we have a vast solar farm. Much of the work happens in a factory, optimized for repeatable processes and insulated from delays that often disrupt on-site projects. This reduces the time window for “black swan” events. Past technologies don’t have to be discarded but can be refined. The latest developments in nuclear energy lie in the aptly named Small Modular Reactors (SMR).
Since Lunyra’s focus is on buildings, let’s revisit the numbers. With a 62% mean cost overrun, and a 206% overrun for the 39% of building projects that fail, the outlook is not very optimistic. Although some argue that modularization in architecture would undo all aesthetic aspects, most terraced houses today have only one redeeming feature: once you’re inside, you don’t have to look at them.
But once upon a time, in the early 20th century, Americans could order complete factory-built homes from a Sears Modern Homes catalog, delivered as kits with IKEA-like assembly instructions on a grand scale. Notably, these homes were beautiful, with many still standing 110 years later, valued for their quality construction and classic design.
More recently, Danny Forster designed Manhattan’s largest modular hotel. Each room in the Marriott was factory-built in Poland, complete with furniture. Meanwhile, a different and more famous Forster, designed Apple Park in Cupertino. Tim Cook viewed the construction process as manufacturing project, doing as much as possible outside before “putting together the Legos.”
The difference between cheap, unattractive modular construction and Forster-level quality is imagination and technology. Lunyra aims to achieve the latter while still leaving room for one of a kind, high risk endeavours.
